Theo Fox: November Rain Thoughts on how the new month of November could go for the Blackhawks: keep enduring a torrential downpour or time to bring the rain?

Plus, a look at what's on tap for the Hawks as well as for the IceHogs.

First time poster, long time reader. Theo, I do really enjoy your posts. But I'm finding it hard to care or even read about the team, even (and perhaps especially) as a diversion. And i grew up going to hawks games! Are you finding the articles harder to write?

Maybe the new month brings wins with it.
They've had no success scoring. Maybe the goals start coming in bunches.

The young defenseman Phillips has played well and can definitely keep pace with NHL skaters.

So Nylander has been the key all along? Who woulda thunk it!

Nothing lasts forever, even cold November Rain

Nothing lasts forever, even cold November Rain
- Hossa1881

And maybe one day the team will take us back to that Paradise City.

So Nylander has been the key all along? Who woulda thunk it!
- powerenforcer

Did you see the tape of his 4th goal? No way that's a goal in the NHL...

And maybe one day the team will take us back to that Paradise City.
- Rota's Rooter

Til then...Salud with a bottle of Nightrain ensconced in it's brown paper wrapper.

Some interesting facts from Charlie Roumeliotis on NBCSports.com that show the Blackhawks start is due to some unsustainable puck luck.

Especially interesting is the low shooting percentage and the awful goaltending.

https://www.nbcsports.com...t-turn-winless-blackhawks

A few highlights:
Perhaps the most notable reason? Chicago simply hasn't gotten the goaltending it was expecting from the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and one of the league's breakout rookies last season.

Of the 68 goaltenders that have made at least one appearance this season, Marc-Andre Fleury and Kevin Lankinen rank 66th and 67th in goals saved above expected at -6.4 and -6.5, respectively. That's 12.9 goals that should've been stopped that weren't.

For one, the Blackhawks are currently riding an unsustainably low shooting percentage at 5.41. The league average last season was 9.7. Detroit finished last at 8.18. Expect a significant correction there at some point...

Typically, the driving force behind a winning streak or losing skid is either an abnormal shooting percentage or save percentage. The Blackhawks' struggles are oddly due to both, possessing a PDO — a metric that combines shooting percentage and save percentage — of 90.2 at even strength. The mean is 100, and no team finished under 97.2 last season.

Some interesting facts from Charlie Roumeliotis on NBCSports.com that show the Blackhawks start is due to some unsustainable puck luck.

Especially interesting is the low shooting percentage and the awful goaltending.

https://www.nbcsports.com...t-turn-winless-blackhawks

A few highlights:
Perhaps the most notable reason? Chicago simply hasn't gotten the goaltending it was expecting from the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and one of the league's breakout rookies last season.

Of the 68 goaltenders that have made at least one appearance this season, Marc-Andre Fleury and Kevin Lankinen rank 66th and 67th in goals saved above expected at -6.4 and -6.5, respectively. That's 12.9 goals that should've been stopped that weren't.

For one, the Blackhawks are currently riding an unsustainably low shooting percentage at 5.41. The league average last season was 9.7. Detroit finished last at 8.18. Expect a significant correction there at some point...

Typically, the driving force behind a winning streak or losing skid is either an abnormal shooting percentage or save percentage. The Blackhawks' struggles are oddly due to both, possessing a PDO — a metric that combines shooting percentage and save percentage — of 90.2 at even strength. The mean is 100, and no team finished under 97.2 last season.
- scottak

This was interesting, but some of the low %'s could also be due to lack of skilled offensive players.

Maybe in November, Danny will decide who is going to run the hockey side of the operations, get some certainty on JC status, and Kane and Toews amend their tone deaf statements on what they knew. Until the above happens, watching this team will be like watching a funeral march.

They start negotiation with Beach tomorrow. If Beach asks for $100 mil. does Rocky pay up? I am sure they have E & O insurance to cover it.

This was interesting, but some of the low %'s could also be due to lack of skilled offensive players.
- RaleighHawk

Could the low shooting % be a function of where on the ice the shots were taken?

Maybe in November, Danny will decide who is going to run the hockey side of the operations, get some certainty on JC status, and Kane and Toews amend their tone deaf statements on what they knew. Until the above happens, watching this team will be like watching a funeral march.

They start negotiation with Beach tomorrow. If Beach asks for $100 mil. does Rocky pay up? I am sure they have E & O insurance to cover it.
- LAHawk

I wonder what % of Beach's damages were the result of Aldrich's actions, and how much were on the team?

Also, didn't Beach say he went until 2019 believing that the Hawks had "handled" the situation? If so, what are his damages? Of course, this settlement will be all about PR.

First time poster, long time reader. Theo, I do really enjoy your posts. But I'm finding it hard to care or even read about the team, even (and perhaps especially) as a diversion. And i grew up going to hawks games! Are you finding the articles harder to write?
- larkster

Do you mean because of the slow (backward) start or the scandal?

The scandal was very disheartening and, for me, took away some of the luster of the championships. As for the poor start I look forward to see how or if the team can rebuild the team into a contender. While some fans enjoyed the team from 2010 on, I enjoyed watching the team from about 2006 when it became apparent they were stockpiling some decent young talent.

First time poster, long time reader. Theo, I do really enjoy your posts. But I'm finding it hard to care or even read about the team, even (and perhaps especially) as a diversion. And i grew up going to hawks games! Are you finding the articles harder to write?
- larkster

Thanks for the readership. Good to see you and a few other new posters the past few days put up their first posts.

Watching the team and standing behind the organization has been tough but writing about them has been fairly easy as there’s plenty of topics to discuss.

I wonder what % of Beach's damages were the result of Aldrich's actions, and how much were on the team?

Also, didn't Beach say he went until 2019 believing that the Hawks had "handled" the situation? If so, what are his damages? Of course, this settlement will be all about PR.
- mohel

The PR goes both ways. If Beach is after some crazy amount of money, the sympathy I had for him is diminished.

I wonder what % of Beach's damages were the result of Aldrich's actions, and how much were on the team?

Also, didn't Beach say he went until 2019 believing that the Hawks had "handled" the situation? If so, what are his damages? Of course, this settlement will be all about PR.
- mohel

Well how much does a 1st round power forward make during his career? Then add 2 or 3X for the pain and emotional suffering?

Bettman going to talk today about his meeting with Beach today.

Could the low shooting % be a function of where on the ice the shots were taken?
- mohel

On an individual shot, you are correct. But not when you juxtapose the Hawks % with the cumulative % of every shot of every team.

It's most likely that over the course of the season, each Hawk player's shooting % will return closer to that players norm.

Sort of like when Joe Maddon says that each player is what it says on the back of his baseball card. Over time, the player's stats return toward the norm.

To me, most disturbing is the awful play of the goalies. 13 less goals against probably gets the Hawks to around .500.

The biggest problem isn't JC's system, or protecting the house, or Seth Jones. It's the 2 guys that are at the absolute bottom of goalie ranking so far. Nothing can cover up bad goaltending.

Our first round "power forward" draft picks? or the rest of the league? I don't think the plaintiff would be happy with our first round pick salary numbers.

On an individual shot, you are correct. But not when you juxtapose the Hawks % with the cumulative % of every shot of every team.

It's most likely that over the course of the season, each Hawk player's shooting % will return closer to that players norm.

Sort of like when Joe Maddon says that each player is what it says on the back of his baseball card. Over time, the player's stats return toward the norm.

To me, most disturbing is the awful play of the goalies. 13 less goals against probably gets the Hawks to around .500.

The biggest problem isn't JC's system, or protecting the house, or Seth Jones. It's the 2 guys that are at the absolute bottom of goalie ranking so far. Nothing can cover up bad goaltending.
- scottak

I think there is lots of blame to go around. Not enough NHL talent. The forwards are unable to keep sustained pressure in the offensive zone and they don’t consistently support the defense. The defense make some terrible mistakes and the goaltending has been inconsistent. The biggest issue I have with the coaching staff is them not holding players accountable for so many mental mistakes and the inability to execute basic fundamentals.

On an individual shot, you are correct. But not when you juxtapose the Hawks % with the cumulative % of every shot of every team.

It's most likely that over the course of the season, each Hawk player's shooting % will return closer to that players norm.

Sort of like when Joe Maddon says that each player is what it says on the back of his baseball card. Over time, the player's stats return toward the norm.

To me, most disturbing is the awful play of the goalies. 13 less goals against probably gets the Hawks to around .500.

The biggest problem isn't JC's system, or protecting the house, or Seth Jones. It's the 2 guys that are at the absolute bottom of goalie ranking so far. Nothing can cover up bad goaltending.
- scottak

Interesting about the goaltending. With all the glut of goaltenders the Hawks have this year, the only one signed next year is Soderbloom. All the rest are UFA's. Lankinen since the second half of last year has not shown that he is even close to being #1 material. Does the new GM even offer him a contract?

Thanks for the readership. Good to see you and a few other new posters the past few days put up their first posts.

Watching the team and standing behind the organization has been tough but writing about them has been fairly easy as there’s plenty of topics to discuss.
- Theo Fox

Not directed at you, Theo, but I don't get why the organization is hard to cheer for right now. Rocky became aware of a serious issue and did exactly what is expected of him in today's......environment. If what Rocky did does not satisfy the mob, what would? I'd think they'd be celebrated as the model on how to handle this type of issue. Unless, of course, Rocky knew all along.

Our first round "power forward" draft picks? or the rest of the league? I don't think the plaintiff would be happy with our first round pick salary numbers.
- OGSixFan

Well by the time Tom Wilson's contract ends in 04-05, he will have total earnings of $40 million, not including playoff shares. If I was arguing on behalf of Beach, that would be a good comparison. He was drafted 16th overall.